Green should be the consensus fourth wide receiver off the board once you get past the trappings of just looking at what happened last season.
He's a total steal if he slips to Round 2. Keenan Allen , Chargers - DeAndre Hopkins didn't really sneak up on anyone last year, as he was widely a third-round pick and the WR14 across fantasy formats last year.
Hopkins is a phenomenal talent, but negative game script, enormous play volume, and target share helped boost his breakout season. On the surface, Hopkins' fellow draft pick Keenan Allen is destined to walk down a nearly identical path in In reality, Allen was on his way to that season already last season before he went down in Week 8 with a freak kidney injury.
Prior to going on IR, Allen was on pace for over 1, yards with a 26 percent share of the pass-heavy Chargers ' targets. It was a legitimate breakthrough campaign for the third-year receiver, who bounced back from a middling sophomore year following a 1, yard rookie year.
Keenan Allen 's Reception Perception was nothing short of extraordinary. His While plenty of analysts offer doubts regarding Allen's status as a true No. Allen's route distribution makes him not only a tremendous asset for the Chargers but also a reliable entity for his fantasy owners. Of the routes charted for his Reception Perception sample, These in-breaking routes are perfect for Philip Rivers ' skill set and Allen's ability to flash open quickly on them makes him an appealing target.
Allen's success rates on these routes are within the top five for each pattern, and the Chargers just thumped teams with that up-tempo quick passing early in the season. We see that Allen is a proficient and probably underrated receiver, but he also has the other factors in his favor necessary for a top fantasy season.
The Chargers will end up being a passing team, whether they want to or not. Based on , we can only believe they'll establish an offensive foundation on Melvin Gordon 's rushing ability when we see it.
They added some fine pieces to their defense in Casey Heyward and No. The Chargers ranked first in plays per drive last season and have little reason to scale back their tempo. The combination of voluminous offense and negative game script is fantasy gold. Marry that with a receiver Reception Perception regards among the league's best and you're closing in on a nirvana-like state of scoring. Much like Hopkins, Keenan Allen isn't sneaking up on anybody.
The best you can hope for is netting him in the early third-round, but he's more likely a second-rounder regardless of format. The only reason he's not a consensus top pick is the injury cloud hanging over. If he stays healthy, all the factors involved in this equation will boost the uber-talented Allen into the top-six, at worst, among fantasy receivers in Donte Moncrief , Colts - You may have long forgotten by now, but Donte Moncrief already broke out last year.
Even with Andrew Luck and the entire offense playing below previous standards, Moncrief made his presence felt early. In the first seven weeks of the regular season, he produced at a rate that had him on pace to finish with 77 catches, yards and 11 touchdowns by year's end.
He was a monster in the red zone in those seven games, catching four scores inside the yard line, and turning three of four targets inside the yard line into touchdowns. Moncrief's once-torrid pace fell off the rails, and he finished with just yards and six touchdowns. When you divorce Moncrief from his moribund surroundings, through the lens of Reception Perception, it becomes clear he was anything but the cause of his own statistical slowdown.
Moncrief's athletic prowess is impressive, but the way that his route-running improved from college to his rookie year to becoming a true strength in is what makes him especially intriguing.
Moncrief dialed back his deep route rate from an eye-popping His success rates on digs He also improved his success rate versus press coverage from a league average score to a strong Fresh off a massive contract extension and healthy headed into training camp, Andrew Luck should help redirect the Colts back to their status as a top scoring offense.
Moncrief has far less talent around him to compete with like he did in his first two seasons. Gone are Andre Johnson , Coby Fleener and the targets they took with them. The receiver depth chart behind still-learning first-rounder Phillip Dorsett is near barren. After being a spread-out passing unit for much of the last three seasons, the Colts could emerge as a coveted two-receiver concentrated offense for fantasy owners in with Moncrief and T.
Hilton competing for the top spot. Moncrief should walk right into a 20 percent market share as the No. He'll easily exceed his mid-round ADP in casual drafts and is a league-winning type of pick for John Brown , Cardinals - For some reason, John Brown falls anywhere between the fifth and eighth-round in fantasy drafts, depending on the format. That's far too steep a discount for such an ascendant young talent who could finish as the top receiver on his own offensive juggernaut of a team.
John Brown caught Reception Perception's eye early when he finished well above expectations as a rookie. His score against man coverage was the second best amongst charted rookies. Back then he was mostly just a deep threat, but showed great potential as a route-runner to someday graduate to a much higher status. In , he delivered on the optimism, posting a success rate vs. While this helped show he is more than just a deep threat, we also must not forget Brown is still one of the NFL's top downfield receivers:.
Wildly impressive how successful John Brown is on downfield routes with how often he runs them ReceptionPerception pic. Brown is a diminutive receiver but plays well above his size. Not only is he one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL, he's a precise, detailed and nuanced craftsmen. Fantasy owners have a false impression of Brown that he's a boom or bust option.
However, Mike Beers of RotoViz showed that Brown was one of the league's most consistent scoring receivers in When David Johnson was integrated into the offense and all three receivers were healthy during the stretch run, it was Brown who offered both a strong ceiling and floor. The Cardinals held a 57 passing percentage and Carson Palmer was a monumentally efficient quarterback. He did this despite going down the field more than any passer in the NFL, leading the league in average depth per aimed throw with The Cardinals receivers under Bruce Arians will always be big-time scorers and Brown is an ideal fit in the offense.
Now, it's hard to put up too much of a fight if someone wants Michael Floyd over John Brown in the Cardinals receiver group. Floyd is a dynamic talent in his own right and went on a tear once he got healthy last season. He looks the part too at 6-foot-3, pounds.
Down the stretch, it was Floyd and Brown who took over the leading roles in the passing game from Larry Fitzgerald. David Johnson 's role as an elite receiving threat out of the backfield took another hit to the veteran receiver's stock.
Now a clear slot receiver, from Week 12 to 17 Fitzgerald's aDOT average depth of target cratered to 6. With Brown and Floyd the clear top threats now, is the time to strike with them on your fantasy teams.
Brown presents the better value with Floyd widely going ahead of him in drafts, and his Reception Perception illustrates he's just at the beginning of a stellar upward trajectory. Tyler Lockett , Seahawks - Pete Carroll expects the offensive approach the Seahawks utilized in the second half of to rollover into Seattle still maintained a healthy amount of rush attempts, but they went more up-tempo and got the ball out of Russell Wilson 's hands faster.
They became a more passing-centric team, not necessarily a pass-happy team. The shift in philosophy should cause us to reimagine how we project the Seahawks receiver. After recording what scores out as the second-best overall rookie season ever charted by Reception Perception , following Odell Beckham , it is Tyler Lockett who demands our attention. Lockett posted an elite success rate vs. He came in with an above average SRVC score on every route on the tree outside of the screen.
An uncannily smooth route-runner, Lockett can break off a vertical route while selling the defender he's headed downfield. That leaves him wide open on a routine basis, and a tremendous target for one of the NFL's most efficient quarterbacks.
Much like the aforementioned John Brown , Lockett plays bigger than his size. His success rate vs. Go to Tyler Lockett 's Rotoworld news page and all you'll find are positive blurbs about the young wideout. Phrases like "significant strides," "in the middle of out planning" and "next level" paint the ascending outlook of the confirmed Seahawks starter.
It's becoming clear from all sides that the Tyler Lockett hype train is rightfully ready to leave the station.
In the mid-rounds of drafts, Lockett is a name fantasy owners need to start writing in pen. He's a player that, should the Seahawks continue on their pace from the second-half of , could creep into the top among fantasy receivers. His polished route-running and deep game prowess hint at a ceiling that is much higher down the road.
Sterling Shepard , Giants - Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman will likely get the nod from most analysts as the favorite to lead rookie receivers in fantasy scoring. Both have their merits, as Coleman should garner targets as the de-facto No. With that being said, give me Sterling Shepard over the field. He is only 5-foot and a second-round draft pick but has at least one elite trump-card trait. Shepard was bar-none the best route runner in the NFL Draft , which will help make him an instant impact player.
Reception Perception helps quantify that reality, as he was far and away the leader in success rate vs. Shepard's scores in both categories were far and away the best from the 21 sampled prospects in the class. He's a detailed technician and a chore to cover regardless of the defender's game plan. The label "slot receiver" should no longer be a pejorative term -- especially in high-volume passing offenses where the interior short-area receiver eats up targets.
Shepard fits the bill in both respects. He played In , the Giants ranked 13th in the NFL in passing percentage and were in the top in pass attempts in both of his seasons with Ben McAdoo at the helm. With Shepard's unique route polish for a rookie, it's no surprise that he's acclimating quickly to the league.
Shepard's most commonly run route in his Reception Perception sample was the slant, at Those are staples of the west coast offense McAdoo employs, and it's just another positive indicator in Shepard's path to instant success.
A rare polished technician coming into the NFL, Shepard's pristine route-running ability is now married with perfect situation ripe with opportunity.
If he just siphons off the 15 percent share of the team targets that Reuben Randle held in , he'll be flex-relevant in fantasy. Shepard is a better fit with the team and already a better route-runner than Randle ever was, and the inefficient Randle finished as the PPR WR32 last season. Dragged down by the woebegone offense in the Bay Area, Smith posted career lows in catches 33 and yards , while tying his previous low for touchdowns four. In Baltimore, Smith consistently finished as a WR2 in standard fantasy leagues but cratered to a WR48 overall finish in his first year with the Niners.
Was this a case of a player regressing after cashing in on the free agency coin? Reception Perception would offer an emphatic "no" to that query. While the production didn't follow, Smith was still the same player as ever.
Smith registered attempts against man coverage in his Reception Perception sample, posting an above average success rate of He was even more at adept at beating zone coverage with a strong The trouble for Smith was merely opportunity.
The 49ers myriad of quarterbacks only targeted Smith on Believe what you will about Chip Kelly after his failed head-coaching tenure with Philadelphia, but he's the perfect cure-all for a lack of offensive opportunity.
In his three years with the Philadelphia, Kelly's offenses consistently ranked among the league leaders in plays run. Even when the wheels fell off in his final year, the Eagles still finished second in the NFL in this regard. Kelly's approach is a stark difference from what the 49ers experienced last season, and even dating back to Jim Harbaugh's offense.
On average the last three years, Kelly's teams ran more plays per season than the 49ers. Kelly's high-paced offense creates a rising tide for all skill position players in San Francisco, allowing for more opportunities for carries, targets, and the subsequent production. Smith is now unquestionably the top receiver on that team after the departure of recent staples like Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin vacated targets.
When Kelly's Eagles offense was at peak functionality there was a crafty deep threat manning the X-receiver position. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson had career years stretching the field and running intermediate crossers for Kelly in and , respectively. Smith's two best success rates in relation to the league average were on the go-route He's an ideal fit for that role.
In every way you slice it, Torrey Smith is clearly in line for a rebound season and still has the coveted week-winning deep game ability. The community at large has mostly come around to this reality.
Smith is a major steal at that price. If early drafts are any indication, that's not at all what will happen. At that bargain basement ADP, Jones could quite easily be a league-winning pick. With A. Green the clear No. In his Reception Perception sample, However, his route success rates show that he may have been miscast in that role.
Jones' nine-route success rate He was much more successful at creating regular separation on short to intermediate patterns like the slant The Lions will almost certainly dial back his deep route percentage and ask him to be more of a boundary and possession receiver.
After Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator, the Lions put a premium on the quick short passing game. From Week 8 on, Matt Stafford had just a 6. That brand of passing will suit Jones' skill set far better as a route runner. The newest Lions wideout is also dangerous after the catch, breaking one tackle on 10 of his 16 "in space" attempts in his Reception Perception sample.
Jones also fits the Lions need for a red zone threat beyond short dump-offs to Golden Tate. His 90 percent contested catch conversion rate in Reception Perception is the best figure ever recorded by the methodology. Moncrief will need to establish himself among promising targets in rookie D. At 6-foot-2, pounds, with four years of experience entering his age season, the Mississippi product is getting no love in fantasy circles.
Jacksonville, while run-oriented, boasts a powerhouse offensive line and a quarterback whose needle points north. He should find the football coming his way fairly often when Jacksonville is in prime scoring position.
Just how frequently is the real question, and it will mostly depend on game flow. Seferian-Jenkins is built for living in the end zone, and standout running back Leonard Fournette is a touchdown machine.
As we witnessed in his time with the Colts, Moncrief is mostly dependent on scoring touchdowns to keep his fantasy worth afloat. From , he scored a touchdown every 7. Going a step further: If we remove the players with fewer than 50 receptions, Moncrief would have been No.
In fantasy, receivers who present low-volume, high-scoring profiles tend to be difficult to deploy with any reliability. Gamers in PPR leagues surely can push Moncrief down the list of potential late-round fliers. Neither he nor the offensive system have shown the ability to make Moncrief more than a gamble at this point. His average draft placement is outside of the scope of a team, player roster in either scoring format, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.
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